Wikileak 09MEXICO2882

C O N F I D E N T I A L MEXICO 002882 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2019 

TAGS: KCRM PGOV SNAR MX

SUBJECT: ELEMENTS OF GOM POLICY TEAM INTERESTED IN FOCUSING 

TOGETHER ON IMPROVING SECURITY IN A FEW KEY CITIES 

Classified By: NAS Director Keith Mines, reasons 1.5 (b) (d) 

¶1. (C) Summary: At a dinner hosted by PGR for a visiting DOJ

delegation, National Security Coordinator Tello Peon and

Undersecretary for Governance Gutierrez Fernandez told the

delegation they would like to explore seriously focusing our

joint efforts on two or three key cities to reverse the

current wave of violence and instability and show success in

the fight against the DTOs in the next 18 months. They

suggested starting in Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana, and one other

city with a joint planning cell to review what resources we

could collectively bring to bear. They believe the symbolism

of turning several of the most violent cities would be

potent, sending a signal to the rest of the country that the

fight against organized crime can be won, and combating the

current sense of impotence felt by many Mexicans. They

believe it would also go a long way toward stitching up the

country,s damaged international reputation. End Summary.

  

¶2. (U) Acting Attorney General Alcantara hosted a dinner for

Deputy Attorney General for the Criminal Division Lanny

Breuer September 21 in Mexico City. Other attendees

included:

  

GOM

National Security System Coordinator Jorge Tello Peon

Undersecretary for Governance (SEGOB) Geronimo Gutierrez

Fernandez

PGR DAG (SIEDO) Marisela Morales

PGR DAG Victor Emilio Corzo Cabanas

PGR Director for Analysis and Strategic Information Oscar

Rocha Dobrowski

  

US

Deputy Assistant AG Bruce Swartz

Deputy Assistant AG for Criminal Division Kenneth Blanco

Special Assistant to the AG Paul Rosen

DOJ Attache Tony Garcia

NAS Director Keith Mines

  

GOM WANTS FULL TRANSFER OF INTEL TECHNOLOGY AND TRAINING

--------------------------------------------- -----------

  

¶3. (C) Alcantara opened the meeting with two requests from

Oscar Rocha. First, he said PGR would like to develop a more

general exchange of intelligence information and capacity,

not the case-by-case exchange we now have. Second, they

would like for us to provide a full exchange of technology

for use in intelligence gathering, not just the loan of

equipment for specific cases, but the transfer of the

know-how and training as well. Morales added that the FBI is

helping to create a cyber-unit in Mexico but it would be

beneficial if it were expanded and replicated more broadly.

The SSP, she said, already has a cyber-unit but the real

mandate rests with PGR-SIEDO. The U.S. side offered that

there is great capacity in CCIPS in the Criminal Division and

they would be happy to find ways to offer training and

capacity building to their Mexican counterparts. We would be

pleased, Breuer said, in the effort to press High Value

Targets, to get our Mexican counterparts to the point where

they can do these things themselves. It will take the

development of strong trust through proper vetting and good

training but it would be excellent to get to the point where

there is no longer impunity for a Chapo Guzman because his

operating space has been eliminated.

  

¶4. (C) Rocha then spoke of the technological leap about to

take place in the coming years in the intelligence field. He

cited the target-finding equipment used by the USMS with

Mexican counterparts but asked if it would be possible to

acquire not only such equipment for GOM officials, but also

the training and full technology transfer that would go with

it. He suggested we work with vetted units first to provide

such equipment and training, and then move it out more

broadly, both to PGR and CISEN. The U.S. side suggested

getting together in the appropriate working group to see what

could be done. Rocha reiterated that his intent would be to

develop indigenous to the PGR all the capacity they currently

have only in conjunction with the USMS.

  

STRATEGIC MISCALCULATIONS IN MERIDA

-----------------------------------

  

¶5. (C) Gutierrez Fernandez then turned to the Merida

Initiative, saying that in retrospect he and other GOM

officials realize that not enough strategic thought went into

Merida in the early phase. There was too much emphasis in

the initial planning on equipment, which they now know is

slow to arrive and even slower to be of direct utility in the

fight against the DTOs. Of more immediate importance is

building institutions that can effectively use the equipment.

He was careful to point out that all the equipment is needed

and will be put to good use, but wishes that there had been a

more direct focus on institution building, and supported the

current shift in Merida focus to capacity building and

creating more effective institutions.

  

"WE HAVE EIGHTEEN MONTHS"

-------------------------

  

¶6. (C) Gutierrez went on to say, however, that he now

realizes there is not even time for the institution building

to take hold in the remaining years of the Calderon

administration. "We have 18 months," he said, "and if we

do not produce a tangible success that is recognizable to the

Mexican people, it will be difficult to sustain the

confrontation into the next administration." He lamented

the pervasive, debilitating fear that is so much a part of

contemporary Mexican society, where even people in the

Yucatan, with "European levels of security" are afraid

because of the instability in a few distant cities. He

expressed a real concern with "losing" certain regions. It

is damaging Mexico's international reputation, hurting

foreign investment, and leading to a sense of government

impotence, Gutierrez said.

  

DON,T SHY AWAY FROM THE HARDEST CHALLENGES

------------------------------------------

  

¶7. (C) Gutierrez believes what is needed is a clear roadmap

for the remaining years of security cooperation between the

U.S. and Mexico under President Calderon that targets a few

joint projects in a few cities, rather than doing a little of

everything. Tello Peon agreed, suggesting that there is not

time for pilot projects, and certainly not time to work in a

few relatively safe cities such as Nuevo Laredo as has been

suggested, in order to develop the experience to take on the

real challenges.

  

¶8. (C) Instead, he believes, we need to confront the cities

with the largest insecurity and fix them. If we could turn

around Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez, and one other city such as

Culiacan, it would solve 60% of the violence, and send a

signal to the Mexican people that the war can be won.

Politically, he and Gutierrez said, Mexico must succeed in

Juarez because Calderon has staked so much of his reputation

there, with a major show of force that, to date, has not

panned out. Even if it is not completely solved by the time

Calderon leaves office, if they can get things moving in the

right direction, setting the conditions for ultimate success,

it will be enough. There was a brief &chicken and egg8

discussion, with one side suggesting that well-placed and

effective federal forces could push back the DTOs

sufficiently for the state and local forces to function,

while others believed that well-functioning state and local

forces will be a precondition for the federal forces to

produce stability.

  

MOVING FORWARD TOGETHER

-----------------------

  

¶9. (C) Gutierrez thought that to start we need a good joint

assessment of organized criminal groups that makes explicit

their vulnerabilities. We have, he said, five things to put

into the fight: resources, training, joint operations,

technology, and cooperation, and we need to mobilize

effectively all of them. He especially mentioned the need to

synchronize our joint efforts, citing the recent show of

force the U.S. promised on our side of the border that could

not be matched by anything on the Mexican side, leaving it

hollow. Tello Peon suggested we form a planning cell, a few

experts on each side, who could focus on a few programs in a

few places for the next 2 years.

  

¶10. (C) In addition to the intelligence and operational

cooperation that would be at the heart of the new approach,

Gutierrez and Tello Peon mentioned the importance of cultural

and political factors. Politically, Mexico may have a

federal system, Gutierrez said, but historically it has been

more centralized like Colombia or France. The federal

government, however, no longer has the ability to manage the

system from top to bottom. He suggested it would be

necessary for success to break through the impasse produced

by Mexico,s currently dysfunctional federal system and

ensure programs can be synchronized with the states. Tello

Peon also said there will be a need to work on the cultural

factors required to produce a &culture of lawfulness8 that

would mobilize the societal support necessary for success.

Culture and politics will be very complex, he said, but can

be made to work. A clearly articulated and strong doctrine

will help get people behind the strategy.

  

¶11. (C) Tello Peon ended the discussion by saying he arrived

at the dinner somewhat fatigued but would leave energized.

He thought it was an excellent mix of people and welcomed the

honest exchange of new ideas. Mexico, he summarized, is

committed to staying the course, which is sustainable with a

few clear successes.

  

¶12. (C) Comment: We will follow up with Tello Peon and

Gutierrez in the coming weeks to see how committed the GOM is

to the strategy of selecting a few key cities and working to

turn security. If it is their strategy and they plan to

execute it, we should get behind it, using the new strategic

framework to build a regional program to take on the biggest

challenges in key border cities. A considerable amount could

be done with existing funding and a marginal increase in

staffing. We would use the remainder of the calendar year

for planning, and have a new series of programs ready to roll

out in the new year.

Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 

http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 

Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 

PASCUAL